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john Whitehurst

interesting ... it is funny that this has never happened before so mediums do die - it will be a first

as new mediums are introduced our consumption patterns change - hence the media and advertisers change

but we are yet to see the death of a medium - just development

if you take the figures they are using - current growth rates would point to death (but those rates of growth will slow down as the market matures)

newspapers are at a tipping point in mature markets (especially classified)

but globally circulations are up

and until they have a device we can use on the tube, train and toilet (and for anyone who has dropped their phone in the toilet it will have to be one special reader) - people will still read newspapers

the most reasonable prediction i have seen is 2020 but i feel they could still have a place (but the current market needs to innovate)

tv is moving from analogue to digital ... and you will see more developments in using the internet to distribute and purchase tv

but tv is still the biggest medium around - with some of the worst advertising

radio ... this is already moving digital and consumption levels are healthy

magazines ... are becoming more specialist and many of them are thriving - you can still innovate (look at something like monocle)

posters ... love them or hate them - they are still effective and all over the place

the internet is driving this change and we are currently in a rapidly changing market ... this is good, healthy and interesting

but to say death of mediums ... well it is a little sensationalist and rather like a lot of newspaper headlines (a load of pap)

Rosie Sherry

Clay Shirky wrote a book recently, I'd recommend reading it, or viewing this video online (http://blip.tv/file/855937/).

One of the things he talks about is 'cognitive surplus'. We now have so much opportunity and time to do more than just sit and watch TV. No matter how trivial it might be, we can do creative things, become part of a conversation or community.

Am not sure TV would 'die' so to speak, but it is evolving and it may mean that many TV channels or companies will not survive. One thing for sure is that TV as a one way channel is pretty limited.


You're right "Here Comes Everybody" by Clay Shirky is a fantastic read and I would recommend to everybody interested in this topic. He is obviously a very clever bloke The most interesting part for me was the discussion of what happened to scribes after the printing press was invented. They orginally co-existed with movable type for a long time and people tried to defend their profession as something that was very important and would always be around. Printing killed them off in the end.......

Thanks for the comment Rosie



oh and by the way John, what are you quoting when you say global newspaper circulations are up?

John Whitehurst

http://www.wan-press.org/index.php3 - is where i got the circulation growth and advertising growth figures

interesting that the scribes went but the medium 'the book' remained

just like when we moved to digital printing methods 'printing jobs went' but the medium stayed ...

analogue tv is going ... i can say that with confidence :-) but tv will stay

and on the points rosie made ... tv is changing (spot on) - it is the movement from linear to non-linear tv viewing (that is what the geeks call it) - you will end up with a mixture

e.g. event based tv that is linear (sports etc ...) movies that are consumed in a non-linear fashion ...

but it will take one hell of a shift currently in the week (if you look at ipa touchpoints)

24% of time is watching tv
13% of time radio
7% of time internet
3% of time reading newspapers or magazines

at the weekend
29% tv
11% radio
4% online
4% of time reading a newspaper or magazine

as was said before ... 2020 is predicted to be a real crunch time for newspapers BUT i am not sure it will be the death

John Whitehurst

There is an interesting piece by WARC on the winers and losers of the next UK media downturn.

It is consumer based but if anyone has the AA figures for recruitment and fancies sending then over to me - i will have a play and see what trends we can see.

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